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China boom may be ending, warns OECD

Posted by Author on May 11, 2010

By Edmund Conway, The Telegraph, UK, May. 11, 2010-

The Paris-based institution warned that the economy, which has continued to grow rapidly throughout the recent global recession, and has helped support growth worldwide, may be facing a sudden “halt in expansion”.

The warning, revealed by the OECD’s composite leading indicators (CLI) – a measure of economic turning points – will fuel fears that the Asian giant may be set for more troubled times.

The OECD said the CLI for China has dropped from 102.7 points at the turn of the year to 102.2 in March. The fall is significant, since the indicator is regarded as a reliable bellwether for turning points, and has a reliable record of forewarning the peaks and troughs for leading economies in recent years. It came as the People’s Bank of China released a report saying that it would improve the technical mechanism of the yuan’s peg to the US dollar.

Encouragingly for British policymakers, the CLI for the UK is now up to the highest level since the 1970s, rising from 104 at the turn of the year to 105.1.

The OECD – essentially the alliance of the world’s developed nations – also announced that Estonia, Israel and Slovenia are to become formal members, paving the the way to increase the group’s membership to 34 countries.

The Telegraph

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