Experts predict more Chinese bird flu cases
Posted by chinaview on August 10, 2006
James Sturcke, Guardian Unlimited, Tuesday August 8, 2006– China’s admission today that bird flu killed a soldier in 2003 – two years earlier than previously acknowledged – is unlikely to surprise scientists studying the emergence of the virus in Asia.Many have questioned why China, where so many people live in close proximity to wildfowl, has recorded only 19 cases of the disease, 12 of which have proved fatal.
Last October, as British attention turned to the spread of H5N1 cases to European countries, scientists travelled to Asia – at least in part to urge more openness on bird flu from the Chinese authorities.
“We would like to know precisely how the Chinese are responding to such a widespread infection of their chickens, how they are looking at their birds, how they are looking at their human beings for having potentially been infected,” Sir John Skehel, the director of the National Institute of Medical Research at the Medical Research Council, said at the time.
“That information is not available at the moment.”
Today, Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, London, who has been modelling the predicted spread of bird flu for the British government, said it was possible that more cases would come to light.
“It would have been a surprise had there not been more cases from China, because it is in the epicentre of the bird flu outbreak,” he said. “I am certainly not surprised about this one.”
Prof Ferguson said it was difficult to judge whether the Chinese authorities had deliberately tried to cover up bird flu outbreaks or whether the delay in identifying the disease had been due to poor surveillance and communication systems.
“I think a lot has happened since the severe acute respiratory syndrome [Sars] outbreak, and it is a more open country now,” he added.
In 2002-2003, the Chinese authorities were accused of being secretive about Sars, which killed 774 people worldwide.
The death of the soldier – known only by his surname, Shi – was admitted after eight Chinese researchers wrote a letter to the New England Journal of Medicine to say they had found bird flu genes in samples from him. (more details from The Guardian)
Related:
– China finally admits to first case of bird flu
– Man first reported bird flu outbreak in China sentenced in court
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